Self-propagating systems: why regaining control is impossible

In Anti-Tech Revolution: Why and How? (2016), Theodore Kaczynski develops a theory of international relationships that provides the keys to understanding why the techno-industrial system is totally out of control. In this context, he names self-propagating systems (SAP) human organizations that, within the global supersystem — the technological world-system — compete mercilessly for their survival in the short term.

What is a self-propagating system?

A self-propagating system or SAP is “a system that tends to promote its own survival and its own spread.” It can be spread in two ways: either through an infinite growth in its power or size, or by giving rise to new systems with some of its attributes. SAPs can be mammal herds or insect swarms as well as human groups.

Kaczynski takes hunter-gatherer societies as an example in which nuclear families belong to clans, and clans are organized into tribes. Nuclear families, clans, and tribes are all different level SAPs. The nuclear family is a subsystem of the clan, and the clan is a subsystem of the tribe. By extension, nuclear families are subsystems that make up a clan, and clans are themselves subsystems that make up a tribe.

However, the SAPs that interest us are large-scale human organizations that have become hegemonic with technological development and the increasing integration of human groups within a world-system composed of industrial infrastructures:

“The SAPs that matter most to us here are those made up of groups of human beings, for example nations, businesses, unions, churches, and political parties, as well as groups that lack clear boundaries and formal organization (schools of thought, social networks, subcultures).”

From this perspective, states and large industrial firms are subsystems (or SAP) of the technological world-system. We will see that SAPs are forced to monopolize ever more resources in order to grow and survive international competition in the short term, and they do this without any consideration for the long-term consequences.

Competition between SAP and the impossibility of rational control

A particularity of SAPs is that they spread or grow regardless of the will of the individuals who compose them. In their evolutionary process, SAPs go through the same filter as living organisms: natural selection. Those SAPs that will have the most complex, sophisticated and subtle means to ensure their survival and propagation will be favored by natural selection [1].

Competition between SAP structures their activities and prevents them from making rational decisions in the long term, for example. Preserving natural resources becomes an absurdity if their overexploitation can give a competitive advantage in the short term. Kaczynski illustrates his point with a very telling example:

“For example, suppose a forest region is occupied by several small rival kingdoms. The kingdoms that deforest the most land for agricultural purposes can farm more, and thus provide for a larger population than those of the other kingdoms. This gives them a military advantage over their rivals. By refraining from excessive deforestation, for the sake of long-term consequences, a kingdom would place itself at a military disadvantage and would be eliminated by the others, more powerful. Thus the region ended up under the control of kingdoms recklessly destroying their forests. Deforestation ultimately leads to ecological disaster and, In fine, to the collapse of all kingdoms. Here, an attribute that is advantageous, even essential to the short-term survival of a kingdom — the reckless felling of trees — leads, in the long term, to the fall of that same kingdom.”

Kaczynski dismantles the state-planned degrowth proposal in vogue in the circles of the eco-bourgeoisie of large cities and defended by influential eco-technocrats (Jean-Marc Jancovici, Timothée Parrique, Timothée Parrique, Thomas Wagner alias Bon Pote, etc.). If an SAP, by chance the French State, used foresight and decided to limit its efforts to maximize the exploitation of available resources, in particular the exploitation of oil, gas and coal, then “it would impose itself a competitive disadvantage compared to SAPs, which do everything they can to survive and spread in the short term”.

Unsurprisingly, the proposal put forward by eco-technocracy is very politically naive. It ignores the power relationships between SAP that structure the technological system-world. Let's push the point even further by quoting another mathematician-philosopher, Olivier Rey, who also demolishes any idea of degrowth planned by the State in his excellent book A question of size (2014):

“Economically and technically, we must also recognize that, at this point in time, adopting the path of degrowth is not without danger. Indeed, although the only way to prevent or cushion the disaster, degrowth can also mean, for the human communities that would adopt it, an even more rapid downfall. Let us think about the fate of colonized peoples, subjugated because traditional means were outclassed by the power of modern technology. Any “delay” in the process of transforming the world that has been going on for two centuries exposes the conduct of “advancements”; any refusal to be enslaved by technology induces enslavement to those who have the technology. Let us also consider, to take a telling example in a world dominated by the economy, the situation of a farsighted bank in the face of a speculative boom: not participating in it, in preparation for the bubble that is sure to occur, means, in the meantime, to weaken its balance sheet compared to that of its competitors and, therefore, to risk being devoured by them before the trend reversal; in other words, in order only to survive, reason may come to recommend participating in a movement that reason considers absurd. This would be our situation: growth, which is fatal in the long run, would also be a condition for our immediate survival.”

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A suicidal competition on a global scale

The technological world-system is the supersystem that encompasses all subsystems or SAPs (nation states, firms, criminal networks, etc.) through rapid long-distance transport and communication networks. Kazynski believes that this world-system “is approaching a state in which it will be dominated by a small number of extremely powerful global SAPs.”

Today, China and the United States are among these SAPs that dominate the world. The two countries are competing more and more fiercely in the technological field (electronic chips, AI, drones, robots, biotechnologies, etc.). But other SAPs can appear suddenly and develop at a high speed. This was the case a few years ago with the Islamic State group, which took advantage of the chaos in Syria and Iraq to rapidly conquer territories and get hold of oil wells. In the years to come, other SAPs that are still in their infancy will certainly benefit from growing global instability.

As the quantity of readily available resources decreases, competitive pressure between global SAPs will increase in disregard of long-term ecological and social consequences. This competition constantly stimulates the growth of the technological world-system, which is expanding its tentacles to invade new niches that are still unexploited. The incentive to develop ever more destructive weapons, ever more powerful and invasive technologies will be all the stronger. In order to stay in the race, the dominant SAPs will have to invade and colonize new areas (seabed, arctic areas and antarctica, Amazon and Congo Basin, Earth's mantle, asteroids, etc.). This deadly dynamic will continue “until nothing on this planet remains unaltered by technological intervention — an intervention that will be carried out in a mad quest for increased power, with no consideration for the long-term consequences.”

“Fierce competition between self-propagating systems will degrade Earth's climate, the composition of its atmosphere, the composition of its oceans, and so on. The effect on the biosphere will be devastating. [...] If the development of the technological world-system continues unhindered to its logical conclusion, in all probability, there will be nothing left of Earth than a desolate pebble — a planet without life, with the exception, perhaps, of some of the simplest organisms — some bacteria, algae, etc. — that are able to survive in these extreme conditions.”

To remedy this observation, which may seem insurmountable or even discouraging for neophytes, Kaczynski provides in chapters 3 and 4 of Anti-Tech Revolution valuable strategic advice for organizing an anti-technology movement.